Research on the Green and Low-carbon Transformation Path of China’s Transportation Industry under the Goal of “Double Carbon”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53469/ijomsr.2025.08(05).12Keywords:
Transportation carbon emissions, Monte Carlo simulation, Emission reduction pathAbstract
The transportation industry is one of the main sectors of China’s carbon emission sources. Accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of the transportation industry will help China achieve the “double carbon” strategic goal and the construction of a beautiful China on schedule. This paper first measures the carbon emissions of China’s transportation industry from 2001 to 2022, then uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions, and finally uses Monte Carlo simulation to set three different scenarios: benchmark scenario, technological progress scenario and low-carbon target scenario. The dynamic impact of different policy paths on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry from 2023 to 2030 and its peak potential are studied, and the strategies and paths of green and low-carbon transformation of transportation are proposed. First, the most important driving factor for carbon emissions in China ‘s transportation industry is economic scale. Second, the promoting factors are fuel energy-oil ratio and traffic energy intensity. The fuel energy-oil ratio has the greatest emission reduction effect, while the effect of traffic energy intensity on carbon emissions is not stable, and there are stage differences. Third, the results of Monte Carlo simulation show that compared with the benchmark scenario, the emission reduction intensity of the technological progress scenario can reach up to 40.00 %, and the emission reduction intensity of the low-carbon target scenario can reach up to 57.29 %. In addition, among the three scenarios, only under the low-carbon target scenario, it is possible to achieve the carbon peak target of the transportation industry in 2030, and the other two scenarios have not yet reached the peak inflection point. Fourthly, it is found that the low-carbon target scenario is the most feasible way to achieve the overall carbon peak goal of China ‘s transportation industry, and the emission reduction path with the core idea of “transportation energy transformation as the focus and carbon emission double control as the basis” is proposed. Finally, according to the research conclusions, this paper provides relevant policy recommendations for the transportation industry to achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal.
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