Main-Melody Cinema, Policy Alignment, and Market Outcomes in Contemporary China: A Quantitative Analysis (2019-2024)

Abstract

This article examines whether main-melody (主旋律) cinema in contemporary China functions as an institutionally defined marker of policy alignment and whether such alignment corresponds to systematic differences in market outcomes and audience engagement. Drawing on an original film-level dataset of 370 Chinese feature films theatrically released between 2019 and 2024 (172 main-melody; 198 non-main-melody), the study operationalises main-melody status as a categorical variable and applies a three-stage quantitative strategy. Pearson’s chi-square tests assess whether main-melody classification co-varies with policy-alignment attributes and institutional/industrial indicators (including ownership type, release timing, awards, and funding/support year). Independent-samples t-tests compare market and engagement outcomes (box office revenue, screenings, admissions, ratings, and online comment volume) across film types and ownership groups, and one-way ANOVA evaluates whether funding/support-year cohorts differ in market outcomes. Results show strong institutional differentiation: main-melody status is closely associated with policy-alignment indicators and is also significantly related to ownership structure, with state-owned entities more represented among main-melody productions. However, main-melody status does not correspond to consistent differences in conventional market indicators; the most visible divergence appears in online comment volume, suggesting that policy alignment relates more to discursive engagement than to aggregate market scale. Overall, the findings refine debates on cultural governance by demonstrating institutional differentiation without uniform market divergence in China’s film industry.